{"id":13905,"date":"2011-02-23T06:00:45","date_gmt":"2011-02-23T11:00:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.moviefanfare.com\/?p=13905"},"modified":"2015-01-21T15:56:53","modified_gmt":"2015-01-21T20:56:53","slug":"filling-out-an-oscar-pool-my-thoughts-on-the-2011-academy-awards","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.moviefanfare.com\/?p=13905","title":{"rendered":"Filling Out an Oscar Pool: My Thoughts on the 2011 Academy Awards"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"Just thought I would check in real quick before the big (albeit overindulgent and garrulous) ceremony on the 27th to do a rudimentary survey of good old Oscar\u2019s nominations for the best of 2010. Yes, we here at MovieFanFare do a yearly Oscar office pool, and I\u2019ve never won, so I\u2019m hoping for a miracle this year. Most of the time when this little contest rolls around, I have not yet seen most of the nominees due to studios holding their big guns for release late in the year to be at the forefront of voters\u2019 minds come awards time.Now, with the \u201cillustrious\u201d Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences venturing to bestow ten films a year with Best Picture nominations, the challenge to see everything is even greater.<\/p>\n

However, having said that, I\u2019m proud to state that I\u2019ve been able to catch most of the honored nominees this year, at least in the major categories, and have even seen nine of the ten Best Picture hopefuls. Toy Story 3<\/a> is the only one I missed out on, and that one doesn\u2019t even really count: 1. because I really don\u2019t do the animated-family thing, and 2. it has absolutely zero shot at winning because it will already take the trophy for Best Animated Feature. Anyway, I can honestly say that this year\u2019s crop is much more impressive than last year\u2019s, overall. I still to this day haven\u2019t forced myself to sit through Precious: Based On The Novel \u201cPush\u201d By Sapphire<\/a> (just taking the time to type that out made me angry) and The Blind Side<\/a>. So, here are my thoughts on our office pool and how the always infuriating Oscars will go down:<\/p>\n

OK, so our pool demands that we pick a winner in every category, with the main categories, Best Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor and Actress, Director, and Adapted and Original screenplays being weighted (a whole extra point) to try to keep the winner from being a lucky guesser. However, it IS the minor categories that still wind up making or breaking a pool. Regardless, I\u2019ll solely concentrate on the major categories\u00a0for this piece\u00a0or we\u2019d be here all day. Besides, they\u2019re the only ones most people really care about, anyway.<\/p>\n

So, I\u2019m not going to keep everyone in suspense or save the best for last. Therefore, let\u2019s get right to Best Picture\u2026 The nominees are (gasp, deep breath): Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King\u2019s Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit and Winter\u2019s Bone. Personally, I truly feel that Christopher Nolan\u2019s Inception<\/a> was the best film of the year. If it was up to me, Nolan would already have Oscars for Memento<\/a>, Batman Begins<\/a> and The Dark Knight<\/a>. Sadly, the fact that he didn\u2019t even receive a nod in the director category combined with the dreams-within-dreams-within-dreams concept of the film truly befuddling many folks out there means that Inception has no shot at winning. It\u2019s a pity. For the record, while the movie was certainly complex, I felt it to be perfectly organized and capable of being followed (despite my father\u2019s objections) and I LOVED the ending, as opposed to some. Additionally, it\u2019s one of the most creative films I\u2019ve seen in a long time. Oh well, winning a pool isn\u2019t about picking one\u2019s favorites, necessarily.<\/p>\n

Moving on, any film buff who hasn\u2019t been living under a rock knows that Best Picture is a two-horse race between The King\u2019s Speech<\/a> and The Social Network<\/a>, with the latter taking home the Golden Globe and The King\u2019s Speech gaining momentum with some more recent awards. As my colleague Gary Cahall interestingly pointed out in his article<\/a>, the Academy loves awarding films with a decidedly English setting, meaning that TKS should earn the statue. It\u2019s certainly a worthy film and one I liked more than I thought I would. Voters seem to love films that deal with real people, and the story of the United Kingdom\u2019s King George VI overcoming an incredible stammer in his speech to eventually become the voice of the resistance in the days before and during WWII is a compelling one. However, The Social Network I believe is still the odds-on favorite, and the Academy also loves films that deal with timely matters, as evidenced by last year\u2019s win for The Hurt Locker <\/a>over the far superior (in my honest opinion) Avatar<\/a> (I took a real beating on that one in last year\u2019s pool). Let\u2019s face it, whether anyone is a Facebook member or not, no one can get away from it. The social networking site has changed communication and the world forever, and besides, the film, focusing on Facebook founder and creator Mark Zuckerberg\u2019s personal and business dealings, is great. So, that\u2019s probably going to be my pick.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Moving on to Best Actor\u2026 Remember, for the most part I have to play the odds, and Colin Firth is a slam dunk for The King\u2019s Speech. Anyone who has seen the film knows it\u2019s easily the most challenging performance of the five. Playing someone with a speech impediment convincingly can\u2019t be easy. Plus, he lost last year for his performance in A Single man<\/a>. It\u2019s kind of a shame because James Franco is fantastic as Aron Ralston in 127 Hours<\/a>, the true-life tale of the adventurer who went rock-climbing in the desolate mountains of Utah and got trapped literally between a rock and a hard place and had to make the ultimate sacrifice to survive. It also could not have been easy for Franco to play the role largely by himself without any co-stars to play off of, and I can honestly see an \u201chonorary\u201d Oscar (which the Academy loves to bestow) in his future. Also, everyone seems to be automatically dismissing Javier Bardem for his foreign-language performance, and while I have yet to see Biutiful, such a role is certainly not exempt from an Oscar. In fact, it has even happened very recently with Penelope Cruz winning for Vicky Cristina Barcelona <\/a>and Marion Cotillard taking home the prize for La Vie En Rose<\/a>, so I really don\u2019t get the logic there. Maybe it has more to do with the fact that Bardem won recently for No Country For Old Men<\/a>. That\u2019s a little more understandable. Jeff Bridges is very solid in the Coen Brothers\u2019 remake of True Grit as Rooster Cogburn, but he has no shot, especially with already winning last year for Crazy Heart<\/a>, and Jesse Eisenberg (or the other Michael Cera, as\u00a0everyone likes to call him, though Jesse is actually the better actor) is probably a distant fifth for The Social Network. It\u2019s OK, I think TSN is going to have plenty of opportunities to take home trophies.<\/p>\n

\"\"Best Actress\u2026 Well, I actually haven\u2019t been able to catch Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole<\/a> or Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine<\/a>, yet. I\u2019m dying to see the latter because it\u2019s right up my alley. I actually went to see the film, about the darker side of a romantic relationship, but the day I went to see it was actually the day my local theater pulled it from their screens. It\u2019s OK, I saw 127 Hours, instead. Anyway, even with my lack of knowledge on the two aforementioned performances, I doubt it will matter. The young Jennifer Lawrence was pretty brilliant in Winter\u2019s Bone<\/a>, which was another great film, about a girl searching for her father of less than stellar character somewhere in a backwoods town in the Ozarks of Missouri, and no matter what anyone tells me, there\u2019s nothing that can be said to convince me that real things like that DON\u2019T go on\u00a0in real life up there. Unfortunately, none of this will matter either, because she\u2019s not going to win. That brings me to\u2026 Natalie Portman and Black Swan\u2026 meh, the film was certainly good, but I didn\u2019t like it as much as I thought I would. However, her portrayal of a ballet dancer losing her mind is effective, and she has become one of America\u2019s sweethearts (hey, why not? I have to admit to a crush<\/a> on her, as well), much like Sandra Bullock, last year\u2019s winner, so it\u2019s probably going to go to her. Some pundits believe that Annette Bening will be honored for her role in The Kids Are All Right<\/a>\u2026 Actually, the kids aren\u2019t all right\u2026 OK, maybe I should take that back. It was a fine film, and I\u2019m really starting to like that Mia Wasikowska and Yaya DaCosta, but the movie was probably my least favorite of all the nominees, and Bening\u2019s role didn\u2019t seem all that challenging to me compared to the others. The real reason folks think she\u2019ll win (which isn\u2019t unthinkable) is that she\u2019s another one who has been nominated multiple times (The Grifters<\/a>, American Beauty<\/a>, and Being Julia<\/a>) and never won. But, Portman also has other factors on her side. In the last year she has gotten engaged and pregnant, so voters will probably want to cap off a \u201cperfect year\u201d for her. She did also supposedly work on becoming an accomplished dancer for about a full year beforehand, so she probably \u201cdeserves\u201d it more. It looks like I\u2019m sticking with her.<\/p>\n

Best Supporting Actor\u2026 This is another one that isn\u2019t close. There\u2019s no way Christian Bale doesn\u2019t win for The Fighter<\/a>. It\u2019s in the bag, as they say. Taking a step back, I could see him losing some votes to Geoffrey Rush as the speech therapist in The King\u2019s Speech because the role is definitely a charming and likable one. But, Bale won the Golden Globe and he\u2019s been around a while, going all the way back to Steven Spielberg\u2019s Empire Of The Sun<\/a>. What\u2019s funny about The Fighter is that so many folks out there aren\u2019t aware that it\u2019s based on the true story of junior welterweight boxer \u201cIrish\u201d Micky Ward (played by Mark Wahlberg) and his brother Dicky Eklund (Bale), who was also a professional who will never let anyone forget that he once fought \u201cSugar\u201d Ray Leonard. The trailer for the film doesn\u2019t even play up this angle, which was a huge mistake as far as I’m concerned. The thing about Bale is that he\u2019s becoming one of those guys, right up there with the likes of Daniel Day Lewis, who\u2019s capable of completely becoming a different person on film. Bale is almost unrecognizable as Eklund, and people can look to his turn in The Machinist<\/a> for another example. I\u2019m happy for John Hawkes (Winter\u2019s Bone) getting attention, and equally so for Jeremy Renner getting another nod for The Town <\/a>(his time is probably coming), but this is Bale\u2019s year.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Best Supporting Actress\u2026 Ask anyone who regularly bets on sports or horses, and they\u2019ll say that anyone who always picks the favorite will never make much money. Therefore, here\u2019s where I\u2019ll have to start mixing it up a bit. I\u2019m going with the dark horse in this category: Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit. This, for some reason, seems to often be the most unpredictable category, so I have a shot here. Melissa Leo, as Micky Ward\u2019s mother in The Fighter, is probably the favorite. She also won the precursory Golden Globe, but Steinfeld wasn\u2019t nominated alongside her. The young Steinfeld, all of fourteen years old in her first theatrically released feature, completely carries True Grit, participating in almost every scene, as the put upon teen who recruits Rooster Cogburn to exact revenge on the man responsible for her father\u2019s death. She\u2019s fantastic in the film, voters love to give supporting awards to kids (Tatum O\u2019Neal, Anna Paquin\u2026, Jack Palance?), and if Steinfeld doesn\u2019t win, True Grit may get shut out. The Academy loves the Coen Brothers, so I doubt anyone wants that to happen. Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom <\/a>(haven\u2019t seen it), the solid Helena Bonham Carter for TKS, and the darling Amy Adams (with a great Boston accent in The Fighter) don\u2019t have a snowball\u2019s chance in H-E-double hockey sticks.<\/p>\n

I have to hedge my bets and go with David Fincher for Best Director with The Social Network. This award often (not always) goes hand-in-hand with Best Picture, and even if TKS wins over TSN, I think Fincher would still have a chance for this trophy. Again, he would already have at least one if it was up to me (Se7en<\/a>?, Fight Club<\/a>?).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

I really want to vote for Inception for Best Original Screenplay, but to my dismay, it\u2019s in there with TKS so I don\u2019t think I can do that. I will be very upset if Inception gets shut out, but I think it could get a handful of the technical awards, maybe even cinematography. I\u2019m going to have to pick it for something. TSN will win Best Adapted Screenplay, though, that race could be a little tighter. Maybe 127 Hours or Winter\u2019s Bone gets a consolation prize? Anyway, that\u2019s about it. The only other thing I want to say is that the moment I\u2019m most anticipating is the award for Best Documentary Feature. The only film I\u2019ve seen is the exceptionally entertaining Exit Through The Gift Shop<\/a> (about \u201cgraffiti artists,\u201d and I\u2019ll say no more), and I really hope it wins. I\u2019m dying to see if the mysterious director known as Banksy reveals himself to accept the award (though, I seriously doubt it). If it does win, the \u201cacceptance speech\u201d is sure to be something that totally baffles a lot of people\u2026 and that\u2019s a good thing. So, until then, enjoy the show.<\/p>\n

Addendum: Well, as everyone can see, I got it completely wrong (for not the first or the last time). My deliberate risk-taking simply didn\u2019t pay off, as there weren\u2019t any surprises. Rolling the dice on Hailee Steinfeld didn\u2019t quite pan out. Furthermore, my refusal to jump on the momentum bandwagon that became a runaway train in the form of The King\u2019s Speech was ultimately my undoing. Oh well, nothing ventured, nothing gained. There\u2019s always next year.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Just thought I would check in real quick before the big (albeit overindulgent and garrulous) ceremony on the 27th to do a rudimentary survey of good old Oscar\u2019s nominations for the best of 2010. 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His favorite films include \u201cThe Graduate\u201d, \u201cThe Producers\u201d, and \u201cIt\u2019s A Mad Mad Mad Mad World\u201d. As you can see, he likes living in the past. The last movie he really liked was \u201cMy Cousin Vinny\u201d. Let\u2019s face it. 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